Our House of Representatives has just become more diverse, and yet narrower at the same time. A record 40 new MPs have flooded into Parliament – with especially big intakes from the Labour and Act parties. You can see some short profiles of the new MPs in Simon Collins’ article, Forty newcomers include our first …
The National Party’s defeat has been so comprehensive that few in the party seem optimistic they will recover anytime soon. Falling from 47% in 2017 to just 27% (which might drop as low as 25% once special votes are counted), is one of the most severe collapses in New Zealand’s electoral history. And there are …
How badly will James Shaw’s private school debacle affect the Greens? Will it push them out of Parliament? This is increasingly the question being asked as the scandal rolls on and on this week. After all, the two main polling companies have had the party very close to the 5% MMP threshold in their surveys …
If New Zealand First can position itself as the only party to offer voters a “Road to Somewhere”, then we may be in for a shock on election night. Josh Van Veen, who was once a party member and researcher for Winston Peters, applies some of the lesson of a recent, landmark book about British …
When Parliament sits next Tuesday, the Prime Minister will finally meet her match. Judith Collins and Jacinda Ardern are opposites in just about every respect. Yet they have the same basic appeal. Ardern and Collins are as much cultural icons as they are political leaders. Each represents a different side of the New Zealand character, …
The Green Party of Aotearoa-New Zealand could go from helping Jacinda Ardern run the country, to being turfed out of Parliament altogether in ten weeks. And that could see the end of Labour in government. Without them, Labour would likely have to do what no party has done since the introduction of the current MMP …
The latest opinion poll forecasts a landslide win by Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party, but when taken alongside other polling, it illustrates New Zealand politics remains volatile and the contest is still very open. According to the Colmar Brunton poll published by TVNZ last night, Labour would easily romp back into power at the upcoming …
It is rare for a first-term New Zealand prime minister to be the subject of a biography. Let alone two. But then Jacinda Ardern is no ordinary prime minister. At least, that is what two recent books claim. Michelle Duff’s Jacinda Ardern: The Story Behind an Extraordinary Leader (2019) is the first attempt at a …
Does National have any chance of winning the election in September? It’s looking very unlikely, especially after National’s change of leadership hasn’t exactly produced Mullermania in the first two weeks. Quite the opposite, in fact, as I summarised in Tuesday’s Political Roundup column: Todd Muller’s torrid start as National leader. Even the National Party’s pollster, …
The new National Party leader, Todd Muller, had been at pains to portray himself as a solid, serious, safe pair of hands, in contrast to the increasingly Trumpian leanings of Simon Bridges, who Muller deposed in a leadership coup last Friday. But after an uneventful, if uninspiring, first press conference, Muller’s debut week quickly took …
Is Todd Muller the Ned Flanders of the National Party? This is how he’s been characterised by political commentator Gordon Campbell, who suggests the change in leadership is, in Simpsons terms, akin to swapping the scary and cruel Monty Burns for Homer Simpson’s compassionate but conservative neighbour. There’s almost a consensus amongst political commentators that …
Watching Todd Muller make his first speech as the newly minted Leader of the Opposition after Simon Bridges’ defenestration on Friday brought to mind a headmaster addressing a school assembly. He showed no particular desire to ingratiate himself with his audience although the occasional flash of self-deprecating humour indicated a desire to connect with them, …
Todd Muller has made a good start to his leadership, though it would obviously be pretty stupid to extrapolate too much from the first couple of days. Nevertheless, as a matter of speculation, it is interesting to think what success on his part might say about the preferences of the New Zealand electorate. The two …
If tonight’s 1News-Colmar Brunton poll result is anywhere near the 31% recorded in Monday’s Newshub-Reid Research poll, Simon Bridges will surely be dog tucker when his caucus colleagues meet tomorrow to vote on the National Party leadership. The momentum is with newcomer Todd Muller, who seems likely to be installed as leader, with Nikki Kaye …
It was only a matter of time before politicians took a pay cut. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has done the right thing in announcing she will cut the pay of her own ministers and departmental chief executives – see Eleanor Ainge Roy’s Jacinda Ardern and ministers take pay cut in solidarity with those hit by …
The received wisdom is that the Covid-19 pandemic has ensured that Simon Bridges will never be prime minister. In fact, according to some he will be lucky to make it to the election as National Party leader. And maybe this is true. After all, the media attention on government action in times of trouble usually …
When two of the three biggest political parties in parliament are being investigated by the Serious Fraud Office you know you have a problem. Despite New Zealand recently being declared as the least corrupt country on earth, repeated donations and lobbying scandals would suggest that – like our “100% pure” tourism marketing slogan – this may be …
Winston Peters is a colossus of New Zealand politics, and his New Zealand First party is, once again, poised to be the lynchpin in this year’s election campaign. But so much hinges on whether his party makes it over the electoral system’s all-important 5% threshold. Being the only centre party in parliament has made NZ First …
With a year until the next election, Jacinda Ardern may be extraordinarily personally popular, and Labour polling well, but neither fact will determine her fate. In the end, all eyes will be on a handful of low-polling minor parties that could wield influence well beyond their size and ultimately determine the outcome. Ardern’s Labour and the centre-right …